Archive for category Tropical Cyclones

Florida Hurricane Net – Need NetControl Stations

we’re running lean on Net Control Stations and need more, in order to reduce the burden on the few that we do have (especially in the summer, when there are vacations planned, yet it’s the middle of the Hurricane Season).

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If you can volunteer, even if just once per 4-6 weeks, please contact Bob (N6USP), Doug (N4FPS), Eddie (KJ4LRB) or myself (WB6RTH) – or post a reply here and we’ll contact you directly.

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This is a critically important net and will prove it’s worth during the next coming storm (or FIRES, for that matter, if they get any larger than they already are).

Nature of Disasters / Implications to Amateur Radio

I ran across this article from Tom Cox (VE6TOX) which talks about Disasters and Amateur Radio – excellent article that I wanted to share with all (reprinted in total, with permission – no changes or redactions – full credit to Tom Cox VE6TOX). Warning : it’s a LONG article, but it is worth every minute of your time.

There are a number of “pearls” in this article – hope we can all benefit from Tom’s great insight and experience…!!

enjoy…

==============

THE NATURE OF DISASTERS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR AMATEUR RADIO
By Tom Cox VE6TOX
Presented at Communications Academy 2006, April 1, 2006, Burien WA

DISASTERS AND EMERGENCIES
Disasters are not simply big emergencies. They are unique and distinct.  In trying to learn how to prepare for disasters, we make the mistake of looking at the disaster in retrospect. This leads to the same mistakes being made almost every time and the same “lessons learned” being written for almost every disaster report.

Emergencies are what the emergency services train for and respond to every day. A disaster is something that they rarely train for and may only happen once or twice in a lifetime.

Dictionary definitions for emergencies usually include “a sudden, unforeseen happening which requires action to correct or to protect lives and/or property.”

Dictionary definitions for disasters are very similar. For example “A disaster is a tragic event that disrupts the normal routine of life, causing loss of property and life and suffering”. There may also be a statement “overwhelming local resources.”

The legal definition might humorously be stated as “It isn’t an emergency until the government says it is” (Declaration of a state of emergency).

A declaration of a state of emergency is usually done for disasters –   not emergencies.

To show the unique character of a disaster, try throwing more police, fire or ambulance personnel and see if that would make any difference. If not, you are looking at a disaster.

Fast developing local disasters are caused by explosions and tornadoes.  Slow developing local disasters are caused by sink holes and water main breaks.

Fast developing regional disasters are caused by earthquakes and tsunamis.  Slow developing regional disasters are caused by hurricanes, wildfires and pandemics.

CHARACTERISTICS OF DISASTERS
While the characteristics below are almost invariably found with all disasters, an important caveat must be added that it is possible that some of these things will not occur with any particular disaster.

It is an unusual event.  Society learns quickly to cope with usual events and it becomes either routine or an emergency. Disasters, by their nature, are distinct from emergencies because they do not happen all the time.  [Unusual, but not unexpected.  It is common knowledge that California has frequent earthquakes and Florida has hurricanes.]

Communications fail. This is one of the defining characteristics that separate an emergency (communications still work) and a disaster. The problem is that there are over 40 different ways that communications fail – many of which Amateur Radio cannot solve or is only of limited assistance.  For example:   – Equipment failure – repeater off the air, tower destroyed, dispatch center collapse.
- Frequency overuse – listening to dozens of firemen calling “Mayday! Mayday! Mayday!” all at once during 9/11/2001 clearly illustrates that nobody’s Mayday were being understood. Very little information aside from “Mayday! Mayday! Mayday!” got over the radios.
- Battery failure – batteries get used up at an incredibly fast rate during disasters.
- Inability to reach specific organizations, individuals or sites.
- Radios for agencies are not frequency agile and couldn’t talk to one another.
- Passing of incorrect or partially correct information.
- Misunderstanding the information presented or not acting properly upon it.

Phones work. They may not work 100%, but they work. If they don’t work, they will be fixed soon. If they do work, people won’t use Amateur Radio.

The scope or extent is uncertain. With unusual events occurring compounded by communications failure, it is no surprise that disasters invariably result in nobody knowing the full extent of how bad things are.

The worst hit areas are the last to be responded to. Areas slightly affected scream the loudest because they still have phones working or alternate forms of communications. The worst hit areas lose all forms of communications and are simply forgotten do to the noise from elsewhere.

Lack of information – due to the widespread scope of a disaster, EVERYTHING is affected. As a result, there is a tremendous need to find out what roads are out and what roads are intact, what vital services are destroyed and which ones can easily be repaired, where the greatest number of casualties and evacuees are to be found and what buildings are intact for recovery use or have been destroyed. You basically need information on every single aspect of government and business and homes in an instant. Combined with communications failures, you are not going to get the information you need.  [What ever you can see, it is never the whole picture.]

Misinformation – it is very, very easy for information to be misconstrued, rumors to be stated as facts and honest mistakes to become absolute facts when dealing with a disaster. When massive amounts of information are required, it is easy for wrong information to slip in. Disasters are full of examples of “Wrong Information”.

People die. While the emergency services deal with death on a daily or weekly basis, the sheer number of deaths can have a profound and traumatic effect on both responders and those affected. Emergency responders have trouble “switching gears” when faced with body parts and dozens or hundreds of casualties and the public is shocked to see bodies lying on the streets for days.

Emergency services and government will be equally affected. Fire halls are destroyed by tornados. City halls are flooded out. 911 centers collapse. While cases of emergency workers abandoning their posts are extremely rare, it is hard to respond to a disaster when your fire truck is crushed and all the water mains have been broken.

Hospitals will amongst the most affected. Hospitals are almost invariably affected by the disaster. Whether the disaster damages the building itself, the contents of the buildings are disrupted (few hospitals are earthquake proofed), or staff is unable to get to or from the hospital, the hospitals are the first to feel the effects. Hospitals are expensive to build and many are kept longer than the average building because they are just too expensive to replace. As a result, they can be more fragile.

Things get worse. In emergencies, the arrival of the emergency services usually results in things getting better fairly rapidly. Casualties are taken to hospital, fires put out, bad people are arrested. In disasters, the limited resources of the emergency services and the fact that they have been affected as well usually results in a continuation of things deteriorating. When the fire truck is crushed and the water mains are broken, the arrival of the firefighters has no effect on the disaster and the situation continues to deteriorate.

Things get better or they get worse. Disasters never stay exactly the same. This means your response environment will constantly be changing and the situation you were in an hour ago may be completely different now.

Things will last much, much, much longer than you expect. There is a tendency for everyone to think that after an earthquake or a hurricane or any disaster that things will be cleaned up in a week or two. Months later, as society continues to struggle with rebuilding, they realize that the recovery will be years in the making.

CHARACTERISTICS OF DISASTER RESPONSE
Emergencies are taken care of on a local level – it is what emergency services are staffed and trained to do. By definition, anything that is beyond the capabilities of the local services or severely impacts the local emergency services requires outside help. As well, disasters often cross local jurisdictional boundaries. This means that you will have multiple organizations responding.  You have no idea what that means until you see it!  [In a Detroit plane crash, there were 69 fire departments and a total of 288 different organizations which eventually responded.]

Convergence of Responders.  Everyone and their (Search and Rescue) dog comes. This includes off-duty, retired, probationary, volunteer, fired and wanna-be personnel.

Convergence of Organizations – Red Cross, Salvation Army, church groups, Disaster Child Services, SPCA, ARES, RACES, CERT…. Dozens or hundreds of organizations will arrive.

Convergence of Media – local outlets are augmented by regional, national and international media looking for unique stories.

Convergence of Relatives – especially if children are affected, every relative will come looking for missing family members.

Convergence of Volunteers – emergency services will be overwhelmed with something they rarely allow otherwise with the addition of volunteers.

Convergence of Equipment and Supplies – because the exact needs are unknown, supplies will be ordered approximately three times more or three times less than what is actually required. The lack of information on the scope of the disaster, the numbers of people affected and the most severely affected areas means that supplies will be poorly allocated.

Convergence of Spectators.  They will interfere with the responders trying to reach the scene.

“Who is in charge” becomes a major issue. Legal requirements, multi- jurisdictional devastation, multiple agencies, conflicting priorities mean much time is spent initially picking the top person or much more time will be spent debating and working against one- another.

Situation reports are given infrequently and are not updated. Emergency organizations may know that their situation has changed, but they rarely advise outside organizations, agencies or the public because they never do it on a regular basis.

Rumors start in the absence of reliable government or response agency information. Spontaneous sources of information will spring up in the absence of a widespread, easily accessible official source of information.  Emergency services will turn to these ad-hoc sources because they too are not getting all the information they need.

Logistics issues become huge. Not only does the over- or under- supply of scarce resources cause problems, but the transportation issues become huge. Which roads are blocked? What bridges are out? What streets are gridlocked by fleeing evacuees and responding agencies and relatives?

Logistics issues become huge with the allocation of scarce resources. Who gets the ten generators when there are thousands of needs? The hospitals? The reception centers?  The fire halls?  The water supply?  The gas stations to supply fuel for the fire trucks? The utility companies?  The Red Cross? The Amateur Radio operators?

Financial issues are ignored until later. There is an attitude in the disaster response of “someone will pay for this.” At the end of the day, the government says “Let’s see the purchase order. Let’s see the receipts.  Let’s see the authorization.” Issues like “If everyone else is donating meals for the responders, why should McDonalds be the only one to get paid?” or “Why are urban firefighters being paid seven times the amount of forest fire fighters for doing the same job side-by-side?”

With fire trucks destroyed, roads blocked, water mains broken, emergency response becomes very, very creative. This creates unusual responses and unusual locations. Whatever works!  Unusual responses include things like:
- Firefighters using bulldozers or helicopters rather than ladders and hoses.
- Inmates being used to cook for the first responders.
- Garbage dumpsters used to transport essential supplies.
- Naval vessels being used to power reception centers.
- Trains being run down streets with no rails in order to supply power to reception centers and government buildings.
- Firefighters using heavy dump trucks to reach flood victims.

Unusual responses result in unusual locations being used, for example:
- Airport terminals used as hospitals.
- Burger joints being used as police headquarters
- Breweries used to supply water for hundreds of thousands of people.
- Highways and roads used as landing pads and jails.

Incident Command will be used to organize the response. It is the best system in the world at this time for disaster response and deals directly with many of the most critical management, safety and logistical issues that arise in every disaster.

There will be confusion because different agencies use different versions of incident command, agencies take only the parts of incident command that they like and disregard the rest, and new positions and titles are added to keep people happy or reflect their normal organizational structure.

If there is one phone left in the entire country, responders will attempt to make communications by phone because that is what they know and that is what they are comfortable with. In a disaster, there is no time to learn how to use a satellite phone, a radio or any other type of communications system.

At the end of the day, there will be a huge effort to list the “lessons learned”. This will be given to the people who have just learned the lessons of this once-in-a-lifetime experience and will be ignored by those who are about to go through a disaster.

NATURE OF AMATEUR RADIO
Amateur Radio has a nature that makes it extremely useful in disasters. It also has a nature that makes it extremely un-useful in disasters.

Nobody knows what Amateur Radio is or does.

When communications fail, Amateur Radio comes on.

Amateur Radio never has to physically converge – if you have one ham “on the inside” everyone else can monitor and stay out of the way until needed.

Amateur Radio is dispersed, which helps with the damage assessment and defining the exact boundaries or scope of a disaster.

Amateur Radio is less likely to be forced off the air because it has equipment redundancy (every ham seems to have 10 radios), alternate power supplies and is willing to take as many car batteries as required to keep communications going.

Amateur Radio is not tied to the specific locations, agencies, types of disaster and can be flexibly used for multiple types of disaster.

Amateur Radio is a scarce resource – despite having thousands of hams, many are too old to respond, many are physically unfit to respond, many only want to do CW or contesting or DXing and have never participated in any emergency training. If you expect 100 hams, you will get 10.

Amateur Radio is one of the worst at giving situation reports despite the fact that everyone can hear them and would be informed.

Amateur Radio doesn’t make itself user-friendly – nobody knows who you can talk to, how to use an NTS form, or where you are to use you.

Messages sent by Amateur Radio have a much lower chance of getting responded to. This is because there may be no answer available, the message got to the wrong person, the person who got the message has much higher priorities, because the message is tied up in the Amateur Radio paperwork pile or because the sending and receiving operators never followed up to see why an answer hadn’t come through. The end result is that people are appreciative of any messages that do get responded to but the majority of messages never get an answer.

IMPLICATIONS FOR AMATEUR RADIO
If Incident Command is the best management system in the world, use it to structure your Amateur Radio response.

Don’t wait to be called. Even if you are told not to respond, you can still prepare your group and monitor the situation. It is better to ramp up fast and then stand down rather than to wait until being called and working from a catch-up position.  [Every post disaster lessons learned review includes emergency services saying they should have ramped up earlier, instead of trying to play catch up.]

Send one person to the EOC or calling agency. This requires you to have a working relationship with the government and served agencies. If they tell you they will call you only if they need you, it is time to do a presentation on “If all communications have failed, why do you suddenly think you will be able to contact Amateur Radio?”

Amateur Radio is a scarce resource. You will not be able to cover all locations requiring communications.

Avoid being sent to useless locations – use your expertise to make suggestions on where amateur communications can be of greatest use.

If the disaster is widespread and Amateur Radio is dispersed, use Amateur Radio to assemble a systematic and thorough report on what areas are affected.

Look for black holes. Areas with no amateur to give a good or bad damage assessment must be ruled out by having someone take a look. If the area is not affected, the emergency services need to know. If it has been devastated, the emergency services need to know.

If the disaster is widespread and Amateur Radio is dispersed, expect that Amateur Radio will be unable to move easily due to blocked roads, traffic congestion or damaged bridges.

Just like the emergency services may be equally affected as the general population, so will Amateur Radio. Repeaters may be working or out-of-service. Be prepared to use both simplex and repeater and not train on just one or the other.

People will insist on using phones and phones will be a huge priority for the response – the faster the phone system is repaired, the faster the response will be able to work. Anyone who has taken the time to compile a list of cell phone numbers for key people will become the stars of emergency communications.

When phones come back on, start to stand your members down rather than burning them out.

Use your system to give constant and regular situation reports. In the absence of official reports, talk only about your Amateur Radio response.

Don’t expect people to know who you can talk to or how to send messages. You are going to have to put up big signs that are welcoming, let people know who you can talk to (where are your stations?) and help them through the messaging process.

Spend as much time as possible following up on messages and trying to close the loop.

Get into digital communications. The more you can do here, the more useful you will be in a disaster. If volumes of traffic are an issue for all disaster response, then voice messaging no longer cuts it. [An average of just 6 NTS type messages can be sent each hour by voice.]

STRUCTURING YOUR RESPONSE
Use a formal and complete lncident Command response including organization, objectives, terminology and operational periods.  [Use it to manage the Amateur Radio response outside of the incident area.  Within the incident area, you fall under the existing Incident Command.]

Have a set of SOPS to help each person [in the ICS structure] to do their job.

Send regular situation reports over the air and post them on the internet as well. Assign one person to ensure the nets get the latest and read the latest situation reports on the air – a minimum once an hour on operations frequencies and once every 15 minutes on check-in frequencies.

On an individual basis, make a cup of coffee.  [This gives you time to mentally get prepared to go.]

Grab & Go bags should be one bag for personal gear (waterproof) and one for a single station set-up. If one person can’t carry it, it is too much

Use spares. It is a requirement of lncident Command and gives huge operational flexibility to your group. Spares give you flexibility. Who takes over if you cannot?

Station spares at the hospitals first. If the hospitals can be ruled out because this is not a mass-casualty incident, then look for unusual locations.  [The peak of hospital use is post-disaster.]

Reception centers may not be used or may have enough phones depending on the nature of the emergency. Don’t tie yourself up there if you aren’t needed.

Inform surrounding clubs. Don’t be an example of why Amateur Radio operators are often the worst communicators.  [Notify them early in your response.]

Omit things from your lncident Command System and Standard Operating Procedures by conscious and methodical intent rather than simply forgetting to do it. If you don’t need a safety officer, don’t assign one, but don’t forget it!

Use non-hams to assist. They can do member callout, logging of net traffic, writing situation reports, updating other clubs, covering for bathroom breaks, providing logistics support, timing situation reports, taking pictures.

Take pictures. It makes your “Lessons Learned” much more interesting even if nobody learns your lessons.

Be flexible! Disasters are never what you thought they were going to be.

OTHER GENERAL COMMENTS ABOUT DISASTERS – FOR THE FUN OF IT
Things happen faster than you can react or think about.

Things don’t work and things go wrong.

There are no right answers, especially when information is unavailable or incorrect.

Any decision you make will be determined by others, who were not there, to be the wrong decision.

Evacuating a city is like moving it over 10 miles and then having everyone say, “Okay, we moved. Now you must supply everything to us and take care of every single problem we have.”

Lessons learned are “lessons listed” rather than anything people learn.

Donations are a nightmare and are often called “the second disaster”.   Amateur Radio can be a big help at donation warehouses.

Backup generators fail. Over half of them fail in the first 24-48 hours.

Some problems are not solvable.

Rumors start in the absence of reliable official information.

It takes a while to get organized.

Key people will be missing – out of touch, out of region, or dead.

If you don’t know the key people, you won’t be allowed in to the emergency response. If they know you, they will let you in.

Most people don’t learn from disasters. People in tornado alley don’t all have tornado cellars and people rebuild in floodplains.

People don’t have 72-hours of supplies and expect the government to provide everything in that period that might be required.

People are unrealistic in what they expect the responders to do.

Reception centers or evacuation centers are the last place people want to stay and will be completely empty unless it is the only available place to stay (at which point it becomes full to overflowing).

No matter how many frequencies you have, you can only listen to one or two at the most. Emergency organizations wanting more frequencies will still experience communications failures.

No matter how much interoperability you have, you can only listen to one frequency and one person at a time. Adding more people onto a single frequency only clogs the frequency to a greater degree.

The media may be the only source of reliable information because the municipal information representatives are spending too much time massaging and spinning the limited information they have.

Nobody has the total picture or will ever know exactly what happened. All decisions made in this situation risk being the wrong decisions.

If you wait to be called, you will likely never be called because they have too many other issues or can’t find your number when they finally do want to call you.

FEMA US&R Training – good info for all

Jason (W4LTL) recently found some training materials which are used for FEMA Search & Rescue teams, commonly referred to as a  FEMA”Task Force” – such as Nevada Task Force-1 which was deployed in the Katrina disaster (amongst many, many others from around the country). The information provoked me to write about the subject, since many of you will be familiar with the recent disaster in Fukushima, Japan – when a number of heavy rescue teams were deployed from the States, one of which was from Los Angeles (CATF-2 – California Task Force 2). As Amateurs, we will likely encounter these designations and symbology when we respond to a real-life disaster.

Before you read on – a couple of items that may deserve a place in our go-kits (you’ll see why in the paragraphs that follow):

  • a can (or two) of International Orange Spray Paint
  • a few carpenter chalk sticks or large Magic Markers

..
The reason for sharing this information is as follows:

  • Most important – we all need to be SELF-SUFFICIENT for some period of time (typically at least 72 hours) before outside help arrives when a wide-spread disaster strikes (even in the case of the Tornados in Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia),  During that time, there is opportunity to do a self-assessment – to insure that our household is accounted-for, to obtain or collect pre-positioned supplies and instruments AND to attend to our friends and neighbors in our immediate area.
  • Next, as we do our self-assessment and help others in our immediate area, it would be prudent to mark the structures and areas searched using a STANDARDIZED, FEMA-recognized terminology, such that we reduce the burden to arriving Outside help and enable them to proceed to other buildings, structures or areas that REALLY need their help.
  • So, the use of the Standardized, FEMA Terminology and Symbology AVOIDS CONFUSION – something that is not in short supply during a disaster situation. This is precisely why we train for things like Net Control, using standardized scripts and procedures – to avoid confusion when the ^&*(  really hits the fan. We need to be able to operate as if the procedures were second nature to us.
  • Yes – even though we are Amateur Radio Operators, we are CITIZENS FIRST – and in many ways, First Responders in our neighborhood (regardless if you’re officially CERT Trained or not). In that capacity, it is better that we are FORCE MULTIPLIERS by using standard practices, terminology and symbology.
  • In all of this material below, it is important to recognize that you don’t need to be part of a formal FEMA Task Force to be helpful – we can easily substitute FLTF1 (Florida Task Force-1) with WB6RTH – it is only an IDENTIFIER – albeit a FEMA Task Force Identification is more credible, since very few of us are formally trained in things such as building structures – etc..

So, onward with the training materials (excerpted by WB6RTH from the FEMA US&R FOG), however a couple of caveats – (1) I am NOT a certified CERT Trainer, although I am CERT trained and certified, and (2) I am NOT a FEMA trainer, although I have been through much of the FEMA Task Force Training in a previous life:

=============================  Click on Pictures to ENLARGE

The FEMA US&R (Urban Search and Rescue) procedures are based on a document from FEMA called the National Urban Search and Rescue (US&R) Response System – Field Operations Guide (FOG), the latest version dated September 2003. In the document, FEMA describes the National US&R Response System Organization, going from the national level to individual team member roles and responsibilities. Each team is meant to be a self-sufficient organization, with specialists in the areas of Safety, Structures, Information Technologies, Planning, Canine, Technical Search, Rescue, Heavy Equipment and Rigging, Medical, HazMat, Logistics and Communications.

Each team packs it’s own technical equipment, communications and supplies and is dispatched by FEMA Headquarters to support ESF #9 capabilities in the disaster zone. The significance of the US&R standards is that it allows ALL DEPLOYED ESF9 teams to respond in a coordinated and seamless manner.

Structures and Hazards Evaluation

US&R teams approach a building to be searched in the following manner:

  • Looking AT the outside front of the building, the front face is designated as SIDE-A, the left side wall is SIDE-B, the rear wall is SIDE-C and the right-side wall is SIDE-D
  • When starting a search of the INSIDE of the building, US&R teams will divide the interior into quadrants (if at all practical), with the left-front being Quadrant-A and proceeding in a CLOCKWISE direction to the left-rear, right-rear and finally the right-front being Quadrant-D.
  • Multi-story buildings are designated with the ground-floor bing Floor-1 and moving upward (regardless of what elevator buttons might say). Floors below ground are designated B-1, B-2, etc..

When a US&R team begins the assessment of a building, they immediately look for two MAJOR things:

  • Is the structure even safe for a US&R team to start search, or will it require a Structure Assessment, then
  • Does the structure require a Hazardous Materials assessment (commercial building, factory, etc) – in most cases, residential-only structures may not have as compelling a need for a HazMat assessment – but you can NEVER ASSUME that this is the case.

When initially performing the assessment of a structure, the following are standard procedure:

  • A 2-foot by 2-foot square box is outlined at any entrance accessible for entry into the structure. Aerosol cans of spray paint (International Orange color ONLY) will be used for all markings
  • All normal entry points to the building should be marked (if practical) so that other Task Force personnel approaching the building can identify it as having been already evaluated and searched.
  • Specific markings will be CLEARLY made inside the Orange Box to indicate the condition of the structure and any hazards at the time of the assessment.
  • An arrow will be placed next to the box indicated the direction of the safe entrance to the structure, if the markings are not immediately adjacent to the entrance.
  • The TIME, DATE and Identifier of the team or Task Force will be noted outside the box at the UPPER RIGHT-HAND SIDE. This information will be made with Carpenter’s Chalk or lumber crayon (not the spray paint, so as to be legible).
  • If subsequent assessments are made, they shall be noted with the new TIME, DATE and Identifier with carpenter’s chalk below the original entry, or a new marking box can be used if it invalidates the original information.

The depiction of various markings is as follows:

A completed Building Assessment Designation follows, which indicates the following:

  • The building was initially searched on 15-July-1991 at 13:10 local time
  • HazMat was found to be present, with Natural Gas being the primary substance
  • California Task Force 1 was the group who performed the search
  • The building has some structural problems and may require some shoring or bracing

Here is a real-life picture of a Structure and Hazard Assessment

Victim Search

Note that thus far, the assessment is only for the integrity of the Structure, not to potential occupants or victims. This next section pertains to the search of structures for the purpose of identifying, extracting or marking victims.

A separate and distinct marking system is used  related to conspicuously denote information related to victims, their location and their status. The marking system is designed to be used IN CONJUNCTION with the Structure and Hazards Evaluation markings (above).

  • An “X” that is 2-feet by 2-feet will be made with International Orange Color spray paint. This “X” will be constructed in two separate operations (see below),
  • A single SLASH (upper left to lower right) will be drawn upon ENTRY to a structure, along with TIME and IDENTIFIER of the group performing the search,
  • A closing SLASH (upper-right to lower-left), will be drawn upon Task Force EXIT from the structure or area,

  • Distinct information will be placed into each of the four quadrants of the “X” to clearly denote the search status and results at the time of the assessment. The markings will be made with carpenter chalk, lumber crayon or black Magic Marker
  • The LEFT Quadrant will contain the US&R Team Identifier
  • The TOP Quadrant will contain the DATE and TIME that the task force personnel LEFT the structure (remember, this is ON EXIT)
  • The RIGHT Quadrant will contain the Personnel Hazards (e.g., asbestos, snakes, rats, etc)

  • The BOTTOM Quadrant will contain the number of live and dead victims still inside the structure (or “0” – zero if no victims)

  • Situation updates are noted as they might be available. Either previous search markings are crossed-out

AND…..

We’ve all heard, read and been indoctrinated to the Incident Command System (ICS), so following are the forms that are used during a typical FEMA Task Force deployment – many of which already apply to us as amateurs:

Daytona DStar and Analog are Down – fix on Friday

Steve (W1SGC) called last night to inform us that the Daytona DStar repeater, as well as the DBARA Analog repeater were both down, as result of the storm system that blew thru the area Wednesday evening. Both repeaters are in the same cabinet, so it’s possible that there was a tripped circuit breaker at the Polyphaser panel, or in the Astron RM-50M power supplies.

A crew is scheduling to go to the hospital Friday morning to assess the situation and make necessary repairs. We’ll keep you informed of the progress.

more tk

Tropical Disturbance – need to watch

still a long way off, with lots of variability for course changes, but worth keeping an eye on over the next few days. All forecast models have it approaching our direction over the next few days.

TS Richard – Advisory 10

looks like this is turning more towards the west-northwest and may not be a factor for us. See below:


Above: TS Richard, Advisory 10 (click to enlarge)

———-

000
WTNT34 KNHC 230852
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL192010
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...RICHARD CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...CENTER NEARING THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 83.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON AND
THE BAY ISLANDS
* EAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER...AND THE BAY ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS TODAY...NEAR OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY...AND COULD APPROACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
RICHARD COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND IN THE BAY ISLANDS.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS WITH
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

Tropical Storm Richard – Advisory 7A

Continued strengthening – could develop to Hurricane status during the weekend.
Current models show that it could turn into the mid-Gulf area by mid-week – but all
is subject to change.

Above: Tropical Storm Richard, Advisory #7A (click to enlarge)

-----------
000
WTNT34 KNHC 221746
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

...RICHARD EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER TODAY....

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 81.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RICHARD
SHOULD APPROACH NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
RICHARD COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE SATURDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA ON SUNDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm Richard – Advisory #4

Most of the forecast models have this storm heading into the eastern 
Gulf of Mexico by the later part of next week. We will post updates
as the situation warrants, but please be vigilant.

Above: Tropical Storm Richard - (click to enlarge)
000
WTNT34 KNHC 212034
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL192010
500 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR HONDURAS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 80.4W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD
TO LIMON.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST. RICHARD IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR.  A GRADUAL
TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST...AND WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
RICHARD COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND. 

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...
165 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.  THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TD-16 becomes Tropical Storm Nicole

This system continues to march up the eastern coast of Florida.

————-

000
WTNT31 KNHC 291745
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162010
200 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...CIRCULATION OF NICOLE BECOMING POORLY DEFINED...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 80.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.  FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF
NICOLE IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND LESS DEFINED.  

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST.  NICOLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.  A MOTION
BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NICOLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE NICOLE IS
ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...NICOLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TD-16 – Over Cuba – approaching Florida

Currently southeast of Havana – moving North-North-East. Heavy rains in South Florida thru Cocoa Beach already.  If you haven’t made your preparations already, do so now. Florida State EOC is currently on Level-2 Alert, as indicated by the most recent email from the state’s communications officer:

=======  Quoted exactly, and in its entirety

“We have gone to Level II with briefings in the morning.    While ATT we are not expecting a hurricane we  are expecting heavy rain with flooding and possible tornados.  All of the east coast should remain alert monitoring NOAA broadcast the western/Gulf areas should remain alert and be prepared to help if needed.   Currently this notice covers the Keys to Jacksonville/Fernandina Beach and inland to about half of the State from 8 AM Wednesday to late Thursday.  See the information below.  South Florida and North Florida Sections should already be preparing, West Central should  see limited  affects unless there is a change in path.

James “Kimo” Montague, K4IMO/ AFA4BA

Florida Emergency Management Communications”

==========

Most current Advisory from the NHC follows, along with the forecast map:

———–

000
WTNT31 KNHC 291149
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162010
800 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...CENTER
RELOCATED...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 81.4W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MAY
BE BECOMING LESS WELL DEFINED AND HAS BEEN RELOCATED OVER CENTRAL
CUBA.  AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9
MPH...15 KM/HR. A MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
WILL MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER THIS MORNING...AND BE NEAR
OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM CUBA IS
996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA.  THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREAS TODAY.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN