Keep a watch on this story – forecast to turn into a Tropical Storm by the time it reaches us.
All forecast models have it going either over, or very close to Miami, then progressing toward the North-North-East.
Archive for category Tropical Cyclones
Disturbance in the Gulf
Sep 28
This one appears to have “legs” for Florida, as all of the current forecast tracks from the NHC appear to either cross or closely-approach the Florida coastline – we will post regular updates as this system becomes better organized and more threatening. In the meantime – be mindful that speed and direction of this system is subject to change at any time. NHC synopsis and forecast tracks follow below.
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 510 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING AND SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION OF THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEEDED FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
TD Matthew – Possible Threat
Sep 25
Although currently hear the Yucatan Peninsula, some of the forecast models are indicating the possibility of TD Matthew coming north-and-east toward Florida.
Although certainly not definitive, we need to be vigilant, since warning times will be greatly reduced if the storm starts moving toward our direction.
Following is the latest model from StormPulse+, as of early Saturday morning:
Above: TD Matthew (click to enlarge)
More Storms in the Atlantic
Sep 12
as of last night (Saturday), there were 3 storms which might affect the NE Florida area – just when it was starting to calm-down for a short period of time.
Igor is still in the middle of the Atlantic, a Tropical Storm that will likely grow to Hurricane status in the next 48 hours.
A second system, just south of Puerto Rico looks like it is getting better organized – possible trouble for us since it is the southern-most storm so far this season – keep an eye on this system.
A thirdly, a new system that is barely off the coast of Africa is already a 50% chance of formation into Tropical Cyclone formation.. very unusual, since it hasn’t even been exposed to the warm water off the coast of Africa – very likely to develop in the near future.
Below is the outlook map from the satellite perspective – stay vigilant..!!
A reminder that the Florida Hurriane Net meets on your local D-Star repeaters and REF034A each Monday evening at 21:00 Eastern for the purpose of linking systems and users together for Hurricane preparedness and response. We’re only half-way-thru the hurricane season, while most of the worst storms have historically come in the back-half of the season.
The Net was the brainchild of Bob (N6USP), with participation from Doug (N4FPS) and Mike (WB6RTH) as the primary sponsors.
Reflector REF034A is dedicated to the Hurricane Net in times of emergencies – all other traffic will be moved from this reflector in order to accommodate Hurricane related traffic. As the need arises, REF034B (Bravo) will be dedicated to TACTICAL traffic, leaving REF034C as the North-East Florida coordination/response reflector. All stations are requested to give-way to Hurricane Net Control if-and-when a Directed Net is called.
Following is an excerpt from the Hurricane Net webpage, found at: http://www.floridahurricanenet.org/
Above: FL Hurricane Net webpage (click to enlarge)
Earl is gone – with virtually no impact to North-Eastern Florida, other than high surf and rip currents (thankfully), but our friends to the north in North Carolina and New England weren’t so fortunate.
The tropics are relatively quiet, except for the relatively disorganized Low Pressure area which is remnants of Gaston. NHC is reporting the following on that particular system. Stay alert, as this system could organize quickly (70% chance in the next 48-hours, according to the NHC):
“... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS."
Now 4 in total, SIMULTANEOUSLY:
- Hurricane Earl – massive at Catagory-4, definitely a factor for the eastern seaboard north of the N&S Carolina border. Stay on alert.
- Topical Storm Fiona – might not be a factor for us in NE Florida, although might gain strength.
- Tropical Storm Gaston – all signs and models point to it being on a more southerly track that Earl and Fiona. This one might well hit Florida, so be vigilant. NOW is a good time to insure that you have your Go-Kits ready, your personal items prepared and your PLAN ready.
- A 4th system, now starting to develop just off the west coast of Africa – is listed as 10% chance of developing into a Tropical cyclone – but this is the same as what we saw from Gaston (which developed into a TD, then TS within about 72 hours).
Florida Emergency Management has requested that all Amateurs prepare their response kits, as well as their personal emergency plans. Although Earl and Fiona may not be a factor for us (subject to change), these other two storms and the ones yet to emerge could well be threats.
Stay alert, stay vigilant and stay prepared.
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000 WTNT32 KNHC 020855 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010 ...EARL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 74.7W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.40 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...AND WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE. ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE. * WESTPORT TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA. * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR. * NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE. * THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 928 MB...27.40 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW JERSEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
000 WTNT32 KNHC 012051 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010 ...DANGEROUS AND LARGE HURRICANE EARL POSES A THREAT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 73.3W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE. * WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA. * FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. * NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS AGAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER. EARL IS STILL A LARGE HURRICANE AND GROWING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW JERSEY BY EARLY FRIDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. ELSEWHERE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Above: Tropical Storm Gaston
000 WTNT34 KNHC 012040 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010 500 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010 ...THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM IN THE LAST ELEVEN DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 37.0W ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1635 MI...2635 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.0 WEST. GASTON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
